The Impact Of Polling On Elections: Lessons From 2016 And 2020

As the leaves change color and the air turns crisp, autumn brings a sense of anticipation, especially in an election year. For many, this season is synonymous with pumpkin spice lattes and the exciting chaos of political polling. We wake up each day, seeking the latest updates on the polls, hoping they will guide our understanding of the upcoming election outcomes. Yet, as we learned from the past two presidential elections, relying solely on these numbers can lead to anxiety and misguided expectations.

Polling has become an integral part of our electoral process, but the accuracy of these polls can be questionable. In 2016, many were shocked when Donald Trump won the presidency despite the polls indicating a different outcome. Fast forward to 2020, and while polls correctly predicted Joe Biden's victory, they still missed the mark on the level of support he would receive. These experiences raise important questions about the nature of polling and its implications for voters.

The journey into understanding the complexities of polling is both fascinating and essential for any voter. We must grapple with the realities of how polling works, the factors that lead to inaccuracies, and what these lessons mean for future elections. As we delve deeper, we'll uncover the nuances of polling, the pivotal role education plays in shaping voter behavior, and how emerging trends in politics may redefine our expectations.

Ah, autumn: the season of pumpkin-spice everything, falling leaves and poll derangement syndrome. These days, I wake up, log in and immediately look at the “Latest Polls” pages on Real Clear Politics and 538. My anxiety level on any given morning depends on the distance between the blue and red lines. Invariably, they are maddeningly close.

I know obsessing about polls is dumb, but how else can we decide what to stock up on before election day: champagne or antidepressants? You’d think I would have learned my lesson eight years ago. Just before the 2016 election, my friend Suzanne was fretting that Donald Trump was going to beat Hillary Clinton. Suzanne is a sought-after hairstylist in Orange County, and she had been listening very closely to her clients, many of whom are politically conservative.

“Don’t be silly,” I told her as she blew